【MBAChina网讯】After　three years’　work, an independent report recommends building another runway at Heathrow. That will be tricky.

在经过长达三年的讨论评议后，英国机场管理委员会公布独立报告(戴维斯报告),公开表示支持伦敦希思罗机场第三跑道的建设。这将成为英国一个棘手的问题。

Jul 4th 2015 | From the print edition

WHEN Heathrow opened in 1946， it was little more than a muddy airfield and a series of tents. Since then the airport, now the second-busiest in the world by international passenger numbers, has changed dramatically. Each day about 200,000 people pass through its gleaming terminals. But as Heathrow has grown, so too has opposition towards its further expansion. This means that the recommendation on July 1st by Sir Howard Davies, an economist, that the government build another runway there could provoke a big political fight .

1946年希思罗机场投入运营之初，仅是一个泥泞的机场，散落着许多帐篷。那时的小机场如今发生了翻天覆地的变化，以国际乘客流量计，希思罗已经成为世界第二繁忙的机场。每天都有将近20万名旅客穿梭于其灯火通明的航站楼。但随着希思罗机场的规模日渐扩大，反对其扩建的呼声也越来越高。如此一来，经济学家霍华德.戴维斯爵士于7月1日公布的支持政府修建希思罗机场第三条跑道的提议将会引发激烈的政治斗争。

Few doubt that London, Europe’s financial centre, needs more airport capacity. Last year its three main airports (Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted), with four runways between them,handled 130m passengers, 16m more than New York’s main three, which have nine. Heathrow is operating at full capacity, and has been for at least five years. It carries more freight by value than all other British airports combined. Gatwick, Britain’s second-busiest airport, is full 80% of the time.

绝大部分人认为伦敦作为欧洲的金融中心，需要更大的机场容积量，以增强伦敦的空中旅客运输能力。去年伦敦的三个主干机场(希思罗、盖特威克、斯坦斯特德)共四条跑道的旅客吞吐量达1亿3千万人次，比纽约的三家主干机场共九条跑道的旅客吞吐量还多1600万人次。希思罗机场目前处于满负荷运转中，这种高度紧张的状态至少已经持续了五年。它所承载的货物在价值上比英国其他机场所承载的总和更多。盖特威克仅次于希思罗，是英国第二繁忙的机场，在其80%的运营时间是满负荷运转的。

This congestion is damaging. As routes become busier, ticket prices go up and other hubs, such as Dubai International, become more attractive to travellers. Dubai has already overtaken Heathrow in terms of the number of international passengers (see chart).

这种交通拥堵是极具破坏力的。随着各条航线日趋繁忙，机票的价格会逐渐提高。如此一来，其它枢纽机场例如迪拜国际机场对旅客们将更具吸引力。目前，迪拜的国际旅客流量已经超过了希思罗。

Without expansion, both regional and international passengers lose out . As airports become more crowded, fewer domestic flights can be slotted in , potentially hindering business people in places such as Manchester and Newcastle who use Heathrow to transfer to America or Asia. Crowding also leaves less scope to emerging markets. In 2013 just over 40 weekly flights went to China from Britain, compared with 60 from France and nearly 80 from Germany. Sir Howard and his team estimate that expanding Heathrow could boost GDP by 0.65-0.75% by 2050.

由于没有扩建第三条起降跑道，希思罗机场失去了许多境内和国际乘客。由于机场日渐拥挤，几乎无法新增国内航线，因此可能会延误许多在曼彻斯特、纽斯卡尔等地准备经由希思罗飞往美国、亚洲的商人们的行程。交通拥堵使得新兴市场国家的发展空间也更为狭小。在2013年飞往中国的航班中，与法国每周60次和德国每周80次的航班数相比，从伦敦出发的仅有40个班次。霍华德爵士以及他的团队(英国机场管理委员会)估计，如果希思罗扩建，到2050年能够拉动英国GDP增长0.65—0.75个百分比。

Yet if the costs of leaving bulldozers idle are big, the political consequences of getting them started could be equally colossal. When David Cameron, the prime minister, was a fresh-faced leader of the opposition he boasted “no ifs, no buts, there’ll be no third runway at Heathrow”.When in government,rather than deal with the issue he appointed Sir Howard to look into it, which conveniently put off the decision until after the recent election. Now Sir Howard’s report is out, but at a time when Mr Cameron is already dealing with his MPs squabbling over Europe.

如果说搁置扩建计划、闲置推土机的成本很大，那么让它们投入工作也会产生非常严重的政治后果。当戴维.卡梅伦首相尚且还是初出茅庐的反对党领袖时，他曾信誓旦旦地说：“没有如果，没有但是，希思罗不可能有第三条跑道。”在(卡梅伦)执政的过程中，他并未直接处理这个问题而是交由霍华德爵士去深入调查了解，"机智地"将问题推迟到最近的大选之后再做决定。现在霍华德爵士的报告已经有了结果，但卡梅伦正忙于解决他的国会议员关于欧洲问题的争论。

At least five cabinet ministers are against it, along with several well-known MPs. Opposition to the expansion of Heathrow helped Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London,achieve a resounding victory , and he is still staunchly opposed to it. If Mr Cameron wants another Tory in City Hall then expanding Heathrow could put him in a pickle. Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond, the Tory front-runner to replace Mr Johnson, has already threatened to resign from his seat if another runway goes ahead.

包括几位著名的国会议员在内，至少有五位内阁大臣对此报告持反对意见。伦敦市市长，保守派的鲍里斯.约翰逊对希思罗扩建的反对使他大获全胜,并且，他仍将坚决反对这项议程。如果卡梅伦希望下一位伦敦市长仍是保守党人,那么希思罗的扩建将让他陷入困境。极有可能取代詹森.约翰斯的里士满国会议员扎克.戈德史密斯甚至威胁道，如果修建第三条跑道，那么他将辞职。

Meanwhile, six marginal seats sit under the flight path in west London, and their well-heeled constituents are more vocal than most. Two of these—Brentwood and Isle worth, and Ealing Central—were won by Labour from the Tories in May’s general election by candidates who specifically asserted that they were against expansion. Although the number of residents affected by aircraft noise has decreased sharply over the past two decades, as planes have become quieter, it still affects over 200,000 people (see chart). Air pollution, already high in areas near the airport, would increase and could blight up to 47,000 homes unless a low-emission zone was put into place.

与此同时，分布于西伦敦飞行航线的六个边际席位以及其中较为富有的选民相比绝大多数选民更直言不讳。在五月的大选中，明确宣称反对扩建的工党竞选者从保守党手中赢得了其中的两个席位———布伦特伍德和艾尔沃斯，以及伊灵中心区。在过去的二十年里，飞机飞行逐渐变得安静，受机场噪音干扰的居民人数虽已急剧减少，但仍有20万居民受其影响(见表)。机场附近的空气污染已经十分严重，除非建立一个低排放区，否则情况将不断恶化甚至可能殃及47000个家庭。

Sir Howard and his team have tried to pre-empt the protesters. They suggest that a new runway at Heathrow, to the north-west of the two existing ones, be complemented by a series of concessions to local residents. Flights leaving after 11.30 pm and arriving before 6 am should be banned. A fourth runway should be ruled out by the government through law, they think. Compensation to those who have to move should be more generous, while the airport should pump more cash into the local area. The government should impose a noise levy on airports that are particularly disruptive, similar to those in France and America. The commission looked at the question of airport capacity as a “kind of balancing act,” says Sir Howard. With enough compensation, local opinion may be tipped in favour of expansion.　

　霍华德爵士和他的管理委员会试图先驳回那些反对者。他们建议在希思罗机场现有的两条跑道的西北边新建一条跑道，并通过一系列措施对周围居民进行补偿。飞机降落时间不得晚于晚上11点30分，同样，起飞时间不得早于早上6点。他们认为，政府应该通过法律否决关于第四条跑道的提议。机场应该对当地投入更多资金，被迫搬家的居民们也应获得慷慨的赔偿。政府可以参考法国、美国的做法，对破坏性特别强的机场征收航空噪音污染税。霍华德爵士说，机场管理委员会将机场容积量的问题视为“一场左右逢源的游戏”。有了足够的赔偿，公众可能会更倾向于扩建机场.

But all this depends on how the government reacts to the report. It would be embarrassing for Mr Cameron, who claims to be pro-business, to ignore it. Yet there is always the chance that ministers will prevaricate, postponing a definite decision yet again. After all, Sir Howard’s report follows on from others in 1971, 1978 and 2003, all of which were shelved after a few years. Or, ministers could plump for the politically and environmentally less toxic option of building another runway at Gatwick. Sir Howard and his team did not back the idea, but neither did they dismiss it.

然而一切都取决于政府对这份报告的态度。如果“忽视”这份报告，必将使声称重商的卡梅伦陷入尴尬的境地。至今，大臣们仍可以对此提议搪塞敷衍或者再次推迟最后决定的时间。毕竟，霍华德参照的都是他人公布于1971、1978、2003年但在几年后又被搁置的报告。大臣们还可以另选新址，在政治纷争较少、环境污染较轻的南郊盖特威克机场扩建第二跑道。霍华德爵士和他的委员会并不支持这个想法，但他们也不否定这一方案的可行性。

Either way, a decision needs to be made, and swiftly. Mr Cameron may have several difficult rows on his hands already—over Europe, cuts to welfare and Scotland. But he also has a majority, and was elected on a promise to keep the economic recovery going. Without another runway, Britain’s economy will be weighed down on take-off.

不论如何，英国方面都必须尽快做出决定。卡梅伦目前已面临有好几个难题——欧洲问题，削减福利以及苏格兰问题。在保持经济复苏的承诺下，他所领导的保守党在议会中仍占大多数并得以当选为执政党。但如果希思罗机场不修建第三条起降跑道，英国航空业经济的发展岌岌可危。

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