清华大学经济管理学院陈煜波教授谈中国数字经济的未来

清华大学经济管理学院
2021-02-03 15:18 浏览量: 2834

中国在尚未完成工业化、城镇化和农业现代化之前,就已经迎来了数字化,反映了与发达国家不同的发展逻辑。中国数字经济的迅速发展,既得益于政府的前瞻性政策,也得益于本土企业探索出的创新型商业模式。但同发达国家相比,中国传统产业数字化转型进程仍相对滞后。跨界数字人才的引进和培养,是未来中国数字经济发展与经济数字化转型的重点。

28日,《中国日报》海外版刊发清华经管学院市场营销系教授、清华经管学院党委书记兼副院长陈煜波文章Future of China's digital economy。该文同步发表于中国日报英文网、中文网、观中国公众号、学习强国号;清华大学官方脸书、推特、领英等平台。

Future of China's digital economy

China needs to nurture and attract skilled digital talent to promote its digital transformationIn recent years, a new generation of digital technologies, such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, the internet of things and 5G, has developed rapidly. The digital economy has become a critical driving force for global economic and social development.

It has gained even more momentum thanks to the prominent role of digital technologies in the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus and resumption of economic activities during the pandemic.According to a report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, China's digital economy was valued at 35.8 trillion yuan ($5.5 trillion) in 2019, which was second only to the United States worldwide, accounting for 36.2 percent of China's GDP and contributing 67.7 percent to its GDP growth.

The report also noted that the digital economy accounted for 51.3 percent of GDP in developed countries in 2019, while the number was only 26.8 percent in developing countries. This illustrates that China's digital economy boom is different from that of the developed countries as China embraced digitization before completing industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.China's booming digital economy can be primarily attributed to a number of forward-looking policies for digital infrastructure development by the government.

According to official data, the number of internet users in China was 940 million by the first half of 2020 and the country had an internet penetration rate of 67 percent, 749 million online shoppers, and 805 million online payment users. Fast and affordable internet access has translated China's demographic dividend and huge market into the data dividend and thus a boon for the digital economy. China has probably the most abundant data resources in the world, which has laid a solid foundation for its flourishing digital economy.Another key reason for China's digital growth spurt is that many Chinese technology companies have explored innovative digital models tailored to the local market environment. In the past 20 years, Chinese internet companies such as Alibaba and JD.com Inc have launched unique business models such as Alipay and JD Logistics that are tailored to China's market environment and have solved the trust-related problems in the market and business environment that would otherwise take a long process of industrialization to overcome.

These business models have not only driven concurrent digitization and industrialization in China, but also represent the secret recipe for their competitiveness in emerging markets over internet giants from industrialized economies in the West.Based on a deep understanding of emerging market environment, Chinese companies have introduced business models that suit China's market and the markets of other developing economies, which has also paved the way for the new dual circulation development paradigm with the domestic circulation as the mainstay and the domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.China's digital transformation now is expanding from the demand side to the supply side, from marketing to the upstream of the industrial chain, such as logistics, manufacturing and research and development.

While digital transformation on the demand and consumer side mainly depends on the data dividend generated by a large number of internet users, a digital shift on the supply side relies more on industry-savvy and digital-literate talent who can collect, integrate, analyze and apply data both upstream and downstream. Digital talent is the most important resource and key driving force for the digital transformation of China's economy in the next stage.In 2020, we analyzed nearly 40 million digital talents among all LinkedIn users in 31 cities worldwide, and found that the proportion of digital talents in the ICT sector in China is higher than that in Europe and the US, while the percentage of digital talent in traditional industries in Western countries is higher than that in China.In addition, we found that most China's digital talents only have digital skills, while their counterparts in the West also have industry and business skills and experience.

China's digital talent therefore has obvious shortcomings.These findings show that compared with developed countries, China still lags behind in digitalizing traditional industries. China needs to nurture or find interdisciplinary talent with digital literacy and management skills in industries and other fields of the value chain to facilitate its digital transformation.Digital technologies are driving a new round of scientific and technological revolution together with industrial transformation. For example, big data and AI are disrupting life science and genetic engineering, as shown by the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines. We found that China also lags behind the developed countries in disruptive digital skills to push the scientific boundaries.As talent is the most important resource, digital talent is the foundation underpinning the future of the digital economy.

To better tap the digital talent dividend and make up for its talent shortage, China needs to drive supply-side reforms of its labor market and education with digital skills and education that is tailored to industry needs and scientific breakthroughs. With an emphasis on the integration of digital technologies with other scientific and engineering fields, China should nurture more cutting-edge digital talent with disruptive digital skills to expedite its digital transformation.The author is a professor at the School of Economics and Management and director of the Center for Internet Development and Governance at Tsinghua University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

近年来,以大数据、云计算、人工智能、物联网和5G通信技术为代表的新一代数字技术迅猛发展,数字经济已成为引领全球经济和社会变革的重要驱动力。新冠肺炎疫情期间,数字技术在疫情防控和复工复产中的突出表现,进一步加速了数字经济的发展。中国信息通信研究院发布报告显示,2019年,中国数字经济规模已达到35.8万亿元,仅次于美国位居全球第二,数字经济占GDP比例为36.2%,对GDP增长的贡献率达67.7%。

中国数字经济蓬勃发展的背后,有着与西方发达国家不同的发展逻辑,其根本原因在于:中国在尚未完成工业化、城镇化和农业现代化之前,就已经迎来了数字化。根据中国信息通信研究院报告,2019年发达国家数字经济占GDP比重达51.3%,而发展中国家仅为26.8%。发展中国家发展数字经济面临的主要挑战是,它们必须在数字化的同时兼顾工业化进程。然而,“四化同步”的市场环境也为新兴市场国家提供了一个历史性机遇,它们可以利用适合自身发展环境的数字经济发展模式,在二三十年内迅速完成发达国家一到两个世纪的工业化进程。

关键动力中国数字经济能够迅速发展,首先得益于中国政府推出了一系列前瞻性的数字基础设施建设政策,比如“宽带中国”战略、3G/4G网络建设、提速降费等,成功地将中国的人口红利和超大市场规模优势转化为数据红利。官方数据显示,到2020年上半年,中国网民规模达9.4亿,互联网普及率达67%,网络购物用户规模达7.49亿,网络支付用户规模达8.05亿。

中国已成为世界上最大的互联网市场和数据资源国家,这为中国数字经济的蓬勃发展打下了坚实的基础。中国数字经济迅速发展的另一个关键原因,是中国大量本土企业探索出了一系列创新性的、适合于新兴市场的数字经济商业模式。过去20年,阿里巴巴、京东等本土互联网企业,根据中国独特的市场环境,推出了支付宝、京东自营物流等独特的商业模式,成功地利用数字经济手段解决了需要长时间工业化进程才能解决的市场信任和营商环境问题。

这些适应“四化同步”市场环境的商业模式,既极大地促进了中国数字化和工业化的同步进程,也是这些企业在中国以及东南亚和其他新兴市场,能够在同西方发达国家互联网巨头竞争中脱颖而出的根本原因。过去二三十年,中国政府和企业基于对自身发展环境的深刻理解,推出了适合新兴市场发展环境的政策和商业模式,也为下一阶段中国建立以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局奠定了坚实基础。人才缺口中国数字经济和经济数字化转型正逐渐从需求侧向供给侧,从市场营销向物流、制造、研发等产业链上游渗透。如果说需求侧、消费端的数字化转型主要依靠海量用户带来的数据红利,那么供给侧、产业端的数字化转型则更加依赖既懂行业又有数字化素养的数字人才,对产业链上下游数据进行采集、整合、分析与应用。

数字人才成为下一阶段中国经济全面数字化转型的第一资源和核心驱动力。2020年我们对全球31个重要创新城市(地区)所有领英用户中近4000万数字人才展开分析,发现中国数字人才在信息与通信技术 (ICT) 行业比例高于欧美发达国家,而欧美发达国家的数字人才在传统行业比例高于中国。另外,我们发现中国数字人才的主要技能集中在数字技能方面,而欧美发达国家的数字人才除了拥有数字技能外还拥有丰富的行业技能和商业技能,比如医疗管理、房地产、建筑工程、制药、教育管理等。

这些发现表明,与西方发达国家相比,中国传统产业数字化转型进程还相对滞后,既有数字化素养又有丰富的行业和价值链其他领域管理技能的跨界人才,是下一阶段中国数字经济发展与经济数字化转型需要重点引进和培养的人才。产教融合当前数字技术的发展除了深层次驱动产业变革外,也正在推动新一代科技革命。比如大数据、人工智能等数字技术正给生命科学和基因工程带来颠覆性的影响,这次新冠肺炎疫情中,无论是病毒检测还是疫苗研发,都充分说明了这点。人才是第一资源,数字人才是支撑数字经济健康发展的基础。为了更好地挖掘中国数字人才红利,弥补数字人才短板,下一阶段需要以数字技能为抓手,推动劳动力市场和教育的供给侧改革,大力加强产教融合。要高度重视数字技术与其他科学与工程领域的融合,培养更多具有颠覆性数字技能的前沿型数字人才,加速中国科学研究和工程技术领域的数字化转型,有力推动中国科技创新。

教授简介

陈煜波

清华经管学院市场营销系教授

清华经管学院党委书记兼副院长

清华大学经济管理学院党委书记兼副院长、教授、互联网发展与治理研究中心主任,国家杰出青年科学基金获得者、国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才。美国佛罗里达大学管理学博士,东南大学系统工程硕士、工业管理工程学士。加入清华大学前曾任美国亚利桑那大学艾勒管理学院副教授、终身教职。

主要研究领域为:数字经济,中国经济数字化转型,大数据与全球互联时代的商业创新,气候变化与可持续发展战略。作为国际上最早研究社会化互联网(Web 2.0)的管理学学者之一,在

目前兼任教育部高等学校工商管理类专业教学指导会委员、中国信息化百人会成员、中国数字经济百人会专家委员会副主任、全国质量管理和质量保证标准化技术委员会委员、中国管理现代化研究会青年工作委员会共同主任、管理与决策科学专家委员会副主任、管理科学与工程学会大数据与商务分析研究会副理事长、以及《营销科学学报》主编。

曾先后获得美国亚利桑那大学管理学院院长优秀教学奖、院长课程创新奖、亚利桑那大学学生校友会授予的杰出高等教育工作者、清华大学教学成果一等奖、清华大学优秀博士论文指导教师、清华大学优秀硕士论文指导教师、清华经管学院优秀教学二等奖、EMBA和高管教育教学优秀奖等多个优秀教学奖项。曾受邀为中组部司局级干部培训班、国务院国资委董事会试点中央企业董事培训班、国家行政学院国有重要骨干企业中高级管理人员培训班、交通部、清华-中欧-哈佛高级经理人课程、中国移动、中国工商银行、中国平安、招商银行、中国化工、华侨城、宝马、阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)、阳光保险、中信银行、百度、苏宁云商、京东集团等讲授大数据与全球互联时代的市场变革与商业创新、数字经济与中国经济数字化转型等课程或进行研究合作与战略咨询。

编辑:刘蕊

(本文转载自清华经管在职硕士 ,如有侵权请电话联系13810995524)

* 文章为作者独立观点,不代表MBAChina立场。采编部邮箱:news@mbachina.com,欢迎交流与合作。

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