Bitcoin mining boom adds to chip price inflation

比特币挖矿潮加剧芯片短缺

比特币价格飙升导致的挖矿潮加剧了全球芯片短缺，这种状况不会很快改变。

As the price of bitcoin has surged, the hidden costs of the cryptocurrency boom are becoming clearer.

随着比特币价格飙升，加密货币市场红火的隐藏成本正变得越来越清晰。

Awareness of the environmental consequences of using a vast array of computer equipment to produce bitcoins has been rising. Bill Gates has been among those to flag concerns, pointing out that so-called bitcoin mining uses more electricity per transaction than any other method known to mankind.

人们越来越清楚地认识到，使用大量计算机设备制造比特币会对环境造成种种后果。比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)就是表示担忧的人士之一，他指出，所谓的比特币挖矿每笔交易消耗的电力比人类已知的任何其他方法都要多。

Much less discussed, and yet perhaps more immediate, is mining’s impact on costs of chips — which go into everything from smartphones and TVs to cars.

比特币挖矿对芯片价格的影响虽然讨论得较少，但可能更为迫在眉睫。从智能手机、电视到汽车，无数东西都需要芯片。

Bitcoin is created by bitcoin miners, who are issued with the cryptocurrency in return for completing massive volumes of computations to verify transactions. This requires a high energy input. But minersalso require increasingly powerful computer equipment, or rigs, for the process.

比特币由矿工创造，完成大量用于验证交易的计算会让矿工获得比特币。这个过程需要消耗很多能量。不仅如此，矿工还需要越来越强大的计算机设备，也就是矿机，来完成这一过程。

How quickly bitcoins can be minted is directly correlated to how advanced chips inside the rigs are. As the price of bitcoin rises, so does the profitability of mining. It costs around an average of $5,000 to mine a single bitcoin. With bitcoin trading around $58,000, fat margins have pushed mining revenue to a record $1.4bn last month. As a result, miners are splurging on more and more computers and high-end chips.

比特币的挖出速度与矿机芯片的先进程度有直接关系。随着比特币价格的上升，挖矿的利润也在上升。开采一枚比特币的平均成本约为5000美元。在比特币的交易价格达到每枚约5.8万美元的情况下，丰厚的利润率上月将比特币挖矿收入推高至创纪录的14亿美元。因此，矿工正在斥巨资购买越来越多电脑和高端芯片。

The problem is that even without that growing demand from cryptocurrency miners, the semiconductor industry is struggling with a global shortage. The pandemic, snowstorms in Texas and fires have caused severe disruptions to production and supply chains.

问题是，即使没有加密货币矿工不断增长的需求，半导体行业已经受到全球短缺困扰。新冠疫情、得克萨斯州的暴风雪和火灾已经严重扰乱芯片的生产和供应链。

“Added demand from cryptocurrency miners is coming when the chip industry is dealing with simultaneous crises — from supply constraints to a structural shortage of high-end chips.” says CW Chung, head of research at Nomura in Seoul. “The squeeze should last through the end of the year.”

“加密货币矿工的需求增加之际，芯片行业正同时面临从供应紧缩到高端芯片结构性短缺等危机。”野村证券(Nomura)驻首尔研究主管CW Chung表示，“紧张情况应该会持续到年底。”

Shortages are affecting a broad range of industries. Automakers including Toyota and Volkswagen have slashed production of cars as a result. Smartphone makers are delaying launches of new models. A shortage of gaming chips has forced chipmaker Nvidiato programme a new chip to throttle mining efficiency by half when it detects it is being used to mine cryptocurrency.

芯片短缺影响到了许多行业。丰田(Toyota)和大众汽车(Volkswagen)等汽车制造商因此削减了汽车产量。智能手机制造商推迟了新机发布。由于游戏芯片短缺，芯片制造商英伟达(Nvidia)不得不编写一款新芯片，该芯片在检测到自己被用于加密货币挖矿时，效率将降低一半。

TSMC and Samsung,theworld’s largest chipmakers, make most of the chips used in cryptocurrency mining. The two are also the main supplier for the world’s tech groups such as Apple and Intel — which make up a much larger portion of chipmaker revenues than bitcoin miners.Even so, production capacity for chips has been diverted away from industries that need a continuous supply.

全球最大芯片制造商台积电(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)生产了大多数用于加密货币挖矿的芯片。这两家企业也是苹果(Apple)和英特尔(Intel)等科技企业的主要供应商——在芯片制造商的营收中，这些科技企业占据的比例远大于比特币矿工。即便如此，为那些需要持续供应的产业服务的芯片产能也已减少。

Besides specialised chips, miners are snapping up more computers and servers — which is pushing up demand for traditional Dram chips used in PCs. It does not help that the second quarter is traditionally the peak season for chips used in servers,crucial to the businesses of bigtech groups like Google and Facebook.

除了专业芯片，矿工们还在占据更多的电脑和服务器——这正在推高个人电脑使用的传统动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)芯片的需求。第二季度传统上是服务器所用芯片的需求高峰期，这让情况雪上加霜。服务器对谷歌(Google)和Facebook等大型科技企业的业务至关重要。

All that has played a part in pushing prices of Dram chips up over 60 per cent in the past three months.While those have boosted chipmaker profits, theshortfall has wreaked havoc on the sector's previously predictable price cycle. Chip prices had been expected to fall last year. Now, another 20 per cent rise in consumer chip prices is expected from the second quarter as the shortage intensifies.

DRAM芯片价格在过去3个月上涨60%，以上所有因素都与之有关。虽然价格上涨提高了芯片制造商的利润，但芯片短缺给该产业曾经可预期的价格周期带来了灾难。按照去年的预期，芯片价格本应该下降。但现在，随着短缺加剧，预计消费品芯片价格将在第二季度进一步上涨20%。

“Cryptocurrency industry demand can have a significant influence on the chip market — during the last bitcoin rally, they were a tenth of TSMC's entire sales,” says Chung.

Chung表示：“加密货币产业的需求可能对芯片市场造成重大影响——在上一次比特币牛市期间，该产业占据了台积电全部销量的十分之一。”

Structuralchanges are making the situation worse. Smartphone and game console makers have changed purchasing habits, stockpiling months’ worth of chips ahead of a prolonged period of high prices.Anengineershortage cannot be ruled out either. Taiwanese prosecutors have accused Beijing-based Bitmain Technologies, the world’s largest crypto-mining equipment maker, of allegedly poaching more than 100 local engineers.

结构性变化正在令情况雪上加霜。智能手机和游戏机制造商改变了采购习惯，在比以往持续更久的高价时期到来之前，囤积了够用数月的芯片。工程师人才短缺也不容忽视。台湾检察官指控总部位于北京的比特大陆(Bitmain Technologies)——世界上最大的加密货币矿机制造商——挖走了超过100名台湾工程师。

Critically, chips are one of the most expensive components of consumer electronics devices such as smartphones and PCs. Increased supply to bring down prices will not be fast in coming. The process of sourcing raw materials and producing chips, which used to take at least three months, is getting longer. Building capacity takes years. There are few other suppliers that can produce at scale.

更关键的是，芯片是智能手机和个人电脑等消费电子设备中最昂贵的部件之一。供应增加使价格下降的情况不会很快出现。采购原材料并生产芯片的过程以往至少需要3个月，现在变得更久了。构建产能则需要数年。没有多少其他供应商可以规模化生产。

What then? Previous patterns of behaviour show that bitcoin mining stops being profitable for most miners when the price of bitcoin falls below $3,800. At current levels, that is a long way away.

接下来会怎样？过去的行为模式显示，当比特币价格跌破3800美元时，比特币挖矿对大多数矿工而言就不再有利可图了。现在的价格离那个数字还远着呢。