Joe Biden’s chance to end middle class stagnation拜登将有机会结束“中产停滞”

卢斯：即将到来的繁荣给了拜登一个重置美国资本主义的机会，可以让天平重新朝着工人倾斜，但这个机会可能很短暂。

Once every generation or so, America’s social contract changes. After half a century in which capital has been in the driving seat, Joe Biden has a chance to tilt the advantage back to labour.

每隔一代人左右，美国的社会契约就会发生变化。在资本占据主导地位半个世纪之后，乔•拜登(Joe Biden)得到了一次将天平重新倾斜向工人的机会。

Such an opportunity would have been unthinkable a year ago. The US left can thank the pandemic for this change in the political weather. Biden has so far not let the global health emergency go to waste. The question is whether he can build on the recently passed fiscal stimulus to shift bargaining power towards the American worker.

这样的机会在一年前是不可想象的。美国左派可以将这一政治天气变化归功于疫情。到目前为止，拜登没有浪费这次全球卫生紧急事件。问题是他能否依托最近通过的财政刺激计划，使议价能力朝着美国工人转移。

The macro-conditions Biden faces are close to ideal. With the US set to reach herd immunity in the early summer thanks to its vaccination programme, growth will come roaring back as social distancing recedes. The coming boom will be fuelled by the release of pent-up consumer demand that has pushed America’s personal savings rate to a record high, now being lifted even higher by the latest federal stimulus. Growth is expected to top 6 per cent this year, according to the Federal Reserve, which will more than erase last year’s losses.

拜登面对的宏观环境近乎理想状态。在疫苗接种计划的推动下，美国应该会在夏初达到群体免疫。随着社交距离逐渐取消，经济增长将迅速恢复。被压抑的消费需求——已将美国的个人储蓄率推至历史新高——将得到释放，这将推动经济繁荣，而最新的联邦刺激计划又将带来动力。美联储(Fed)预计今年美国经济增长将超过6%，这将不止弥补去年的损失。

The central bank’s stance is about as dovish as it can get. This week Jay Powell, the Fed chair, basically guaranteed that he would tolerate inflation above 2 per cent for a sustained period. The Fed does not expect to lift its benchmark interest rate before 2024. Rarely do central banks promise to keep the punch bowl filled as the party gets going. Biden is inheriting an optimal two-year window to spread the fruits of unchecked growth to America’s middle classes.

央行的立场是尽可能的温和。本周，美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)基本上保证，他将容忍通胀在一段较长时间内高于2%。美联储预计在2024年之前不会提高基准利率。央行很少承诺只要派对不停酒杯就一直斟满。拜登继承的是一个最佳的两年窗口期，可以将不受抑制的增长的成果分享给美国的中产阶级。

On its own, however, a strong US rebound will not change the structure of the economy, nor do much to dent America’s acute inequality. Most of the income portions of the $1.9tn American Rescue Plan Act consist of one-off transfer payments and an extension to unemployment payouts. They will comfortably tide people over the pandemic. The question is what Biden can do to alter the rules of the game for the long term after the economy returns to trend growth.

然而，就其本身而言，美国经济的强劲反弹不会改变其经济结构，也不会在很大程度上缓解美国严重的不平等。在1.9万亿美元“美国救助计划法案”(American Rescue Plan Act)中，收入部分大体上由一次性转移支付和延长失业补贴组成。它们将帮助人们安然度过这场大流行病。问题是，在经济恢复趋势增长之后，拜登能做些什么从而在长期内改变游戏规则。

The starting point is to acknowledge that America’s median income stagnation is in some part the result of decisions taken by politicians. Until recently, the left and right agreed, as Bill Clinton once put it, that globalisation was “the economic equivalent of a force of nature”. It followed that there was little government could do, other than encouraging people to boost their skills, to shield Americans from the global chill winds.

首先是要承认，美国收入中位数的停滞在某种程度上是政客们所做决定的结果。直到最近左右两派还都同意——用比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)的话来说——全球化是“经济界的自然力量”。按照这一说法，除了鼓励人们提高技能，政府在保护美国人免受全球寒风侵袭方面几乎无能为力。

This was a cop out. Since the 1970s, Washington has done plenty to weaken the power of trade unions, cut social insurance and allow educational costs to increase beyond the reach of ordinary Americans. Instead of cushioning such trends, successive US administrations, including Democratic ones, leaned in further.

这是一种逃避。自20世纪70年代以来，华盛顿采取了大量措施削弱工会的权力，削减社会保险，并允许教育成本上升到普通美国人无法承受的地步。历届美国政府，包括民主党政府，非但没有缓和这些趋势，反而进一步向其倾斜。

Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, once said: “I hear people say we have to stop and debate globalisation. You might as well debate whether autumn should follow summer.”

英国前首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)曾说：“我听到有人说我们必须停下来讨论全球化。你不妨讨论一下夏天之后是不是应该是秋天。”

Today both left and right are happy to have that debate. But they are nowhere near consensus. The Republican party tends to blame China almost exclusively for America’s middle-class struggles. Leftwing Democrats prefer to target America’s super-wealthy. Neither side focuses enough on the downward impact of technology on the price of American labour. The remedies for this come in three tranches: boosting US labour productivity; ensuring that workers take those gains in higher pay and benefits; and lifting support for those left behind.

今天左右两派都很乐意进行这一讨论。但他们离达成共识还差得远。共和党倾向于将美国中产阶级的困顿全都归咎于中国。左翼民主党人更喜欢把矛头指向美国的超级富豪。两边都没有足够重视技术对美国劳动力价格的下行影响。解决这一问题的方法有三：提高美国劳动生产率；确保工人能享受由此带来的好处，提高工资和福利；并为那些被落在后面的人提供支持。

The first is basically the goal of Biden’s Build Back Better programme. He wants to pour money into green technology and broadband. The second involves boosting employee leverage and tackling oligopoly across the US economy. All three entail making the US tax system more progressive.

第一个基本上是拜登的“重建更美好未来”(Build Back Better)计划的目标。他希望资金能投到绿色技术和宽带上。第二点涉及到提高雇员的影响力，并解决美国经济中的寡头垄断问题。这三点都需要使美国的税收制度更具有累进制色彩。

However, each of these, particularly a $15 minimum wage, higher corporate taxes and pro-union legislation, are likely to run aground on Senate obstructionism. It is quite possible that Biden’s historic window will slam shut in the coming weeks.

然而，每一项措施，尤其是15美元的最低工资、提高企业税和支持工会的立法，都可能因在参议院遇到阻挠而搁浅。拜登的历史性机会之窗很有可能在未来几周关闭。

At which point he would face a choice: embrace Senate majority votes by scrapping its 60-vote filibuster, or allow the US economy to drift back to pre-pandemic rules. The latter would be tolerable. After 40 years of stagnation (barring a strong blip in the 1990s) median income grew between 2015 and 2019, mostly because of falling unemployment. Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, estimates that the middle class recaptured about a tenth of what it lost in those years. But at that rate, and assuming no recessions, it would take another 40 years to regain its share of the economy.

届时他将面临一个选择：废除参议院60票才能结束冗长辩论的机制，采纳多数票机制，或者允许美国经济退回到新冠大流行前的规则。后者是可以容忍的。在经历了40年的停滞——除了上世纪90年代的一次强劲增长——之后，收入中位数在2015年至2019年之间出现了增长，这主要是由于失业率的下降。哈佛大学(Harvard)教授、前经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席贾森•弗曼(Jason Furman)估计，中产阶级拿回了那些年损失的十分之一。但以这样的速度，且假设经济不发生衰退，他们还需要40年才能恢复其在经济中的份额。

My bet is that circumstances will push Biden down the more radical path. More than 70 per cent of Americans support the stimulus, including a majority of Republicans. Donald Trump proved two things about US politics. First, rightwing voters are fine with budget deficits, as long as they benefit. Second, they are highly receptive to cultural and racial appeals.

我敢打赌，形势将推动拜登走上更激进的道路。逾70%的美国人支持那项刺激计划，共和党人中也是多数赞成。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)证明了美国政治的两件事。首先，只要对右翼选民有利，他们就不会介意预算赤字。其次，他们对文化和种族诉求的接受度很高。

Biden, in other words, has a chance to take the sting out of US populism with a game-changing economic agenda. It is a historic opening that is unlikely to come again soon. He must weigh that against the cost of preserving the Senate veto for a party that increasingly talks only about culture. As time goes on, it will seem like no choice at all.

换句话说，拜登有机会凭借一个改变游戏规则的经济议程，减少美国民粹主义带来的麻烦。这是一个历史性的机遇，近期内不太可能再次出现。他必须权衡利弊，拿它与为一个越来越只谈文化的政党保留那项参议院否决权所需付出的代价相比较。随着时间的推移，似乎不会再有任何选择机会了。

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刘纪鹏：中国政法大学商学院院长、MBA教育中心主任、二级教授、博士生导师、高级研究员、高级经济师、注册会计师。