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Biden’s stimulus will affect the whole worldFT社评：拜登刺激计划将影响全世界刺激计划将带来繁荣的美国经济，可能会引起全球利率上升，这可能削弱富国的刺激努力，而穷国将更难适应这种新形势。

For the decade after the 2008/2009 financial crisis, many commentators pointed out that monetary policy had become the “only game in town”. With governments concerned to repair their own balance sheets as tax revenues collapsed following the financial crisis, it was left up to central bankers to try to stimulate the economy through cheap money and unconventional asset-purchase programmes. The gargantuan fiscal stimulus package that will soon pass the US Congress will end this regime. The shift will have significance far beyond America’s borders.

在2008年至2009年金融危机之后的10年内，许多评论者指出，货币政策已经成为“唯一的选择”。随着金融危机后税收崩溃，政府的重心放在修补它们的资产负债表上，只剩下央行银行家试图通过廉价货币和非常规资产购买项目来刺激经济。美国国会通过的巨额财政刺激计划将结束这种机制。这种转变的重大影响将远超出美国本土范围。

The OECD’s latest economic outlook forecasts that US president Joe Biden’s programme of government spending — worth 8.5 per cent of US national income — together with the rapid rollout of vaccination efforts, will lift global income by 1 per cent this year. The Paris-based think-tank estimates that the world economy will expand 5.6 per cent this year from its pandemic-induced low — up from its previous 4.2 per cent forecast last December.

经合组织(OECD)最新经济展望预测，美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)的政府支出计划——价值相当于美国国民收入的8.5%——以及迅速铺开的疫苗接种工作，将使今年的全球收入提高1%。这个总部位于巴黎的智库估计，今年世界经济将从疫情导致的低点扩张5.6%——较其去年12月预测的4.2%有所提高。

A booming US economy means economic demand will “spill over” into the rest of the world, particularly its nearest neighbours and most important trading partners Mexico and Canada as well as export-oriented economies in east Asia and Europe. For advanced economies, which borrow in their own currencies, the implications of faster growth in the US is almost entirely positive — increasing potential exports as well as encouraging the “risk on” sentiment that boosts investment.

繁荣的美国经济意味着经济需求将“外溢”至世界其他地区，特别是美国的邻国、也是其最重要的贸易伙伴墨西哥和加拿大，以及东亚和欧洲的出口导向型国家。对于用本国货币借贷的发达国家而言，美国加速增长的意义几乎完全是积极的。这将增加潜在出口，并鼓励能刺激投资的“冒险”情绪。

An overheating US — if the greater demand for goods and services leads to capacity constraints and causes higher inflation — could, however, trigger higher interest rates globally. Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will either be forced into increasing rates to choke off inflationary pressure or feel comfortable removing stimulus as the economy returns to something near full employment. Members of the European Central Bank’s board are already concerned that this could raise financing costs — reducing the effectiveness of their stimulus efforts in a region where monetary policy remains by far the largest form of stimulus.

然而，如果对商品和服务需求的增加导致产能不足，并引起通胀升高，一个过热的美国还可能引发全球利率升高。投资者现在指望美联储(Fed)要么被迫提高利率以遏制通胀压力，要么自愿在经济恢复到接近充分就业时撤销刺激措施。欧洲央行(ECB)董事会成员已担忧这可能提高融资成本。因为在欧洲，货币政策仍然是遥遥领先的首要刺激形式，利率升高将削减欧洲刺激努力的效率。

Poorer countries that struggle to borrow in their own currencies will find it harder to adjust. Rising rates will reverse some of the capital flows that have financed fragile economies and led to a stronger dollar, especially if the US recovery diverges from other rich countries. The most exposed countries are in a better position today than during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, when the Fed suggested it would begin to reduce the pace of asset purchases, and emerging market currencies plummeted. Many have spent the intervening period building up reserves to protect against similar outflows and reduce their reliance on external, dollar-denominated finance.

难以用本国货币借贷的较贫穷国家会更难适应新形势。利率的升高将逆转一些资金流——这些资金流曾给脆弱经济体提供资金，并导致美元走强——特别是假如美国的复苏与其他富裕国家拉开差距。敞口最大的那些国家如今的境况好于2013年的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)时，当时美联储暗示它可能开始放缓资产购买的速度，此后新兴市场的货币暴跌。许多国家在那个时期建立了货币储备，以防类似的资金外流，并降低对外部的、美元计价的资金的依赖。

Higher public sector debt loads, however, mean that for many poor countries rising rates will make themselves felt through government deficits as much as current account deficits — higher interest costs could mean some governments struggle to service debt. Rising commodity prices — lifted by both Chinese and US stimulus efforts — will help exporters but add to the woes of importers.

然而，公共部门债务负担加重意味着，许多穷国会从政府赤字和经常项目赤字中感受到利率的上升——利息成本上升也许意味着一些政府很难偿付债务。中美刺激计划导致的大宗商品价格上涨将有助于出口商，但会加重进口商的苦恼。

Ultimately, though, the policy mix is an improvement on the post-2008 reliance on monetary policy. If the OECD is right about the impact of Biden’s stimulus programme — and there is good reason to think it will be — then a stronger US economy will help to drive a global recovery. It would be even better if the world no longer had to rely on just one source for stimulus and other rich countries were similarly ambitious.

不过，比起2008年以后对货币政策的依赖，这些政策组合归根结底还是一种改善。如果经合组织对拜登刺激计划的影响预测正确（有充分理由认为它会是正确的），那么更强大的美国经济将有助于拉动全球复苏。如果世界不再必须依赖于一种刺激来源，而且其他富裕国家能有类似的雄心，那就更好了。