【直击华尔街】比特币能取代黄金吗?

中国政法大学商学院 2021-01-14 浏览量: 1232

[重点词汇]money laundering: 洗钱orthodox: 规范的;公认的dubious: 可疑的;怀疑的

比特币能取代黄金吗?

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

戴维斯:对加密货币采取敌对态度的各国央行也许会允许它们发挥有限作用。但监管机构似乎不必担心加密货币会与黄金争夺储值手段的地位。

Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money.

比特币(bitcoin)和其他加密货币的投资者享受了这些货币的惊人增长,但他们现在担心,珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)即将担任美国财政部长,这也许意味着一个新时代的到来:监管机构和央行将对加密货币——支持者称之为“自由意志主义”形式的数字货币——充满敌意。

In her last press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve in 2017, Ms Yellen said bitcoin was a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable store of value”. These dismissive remarks were echoed by many other public officials at the time. Since then, however, the market value of bitcoin has roughly doubled. Digital currencies are here to stay.

2017年,耶伦在作为美联储(Fed)主席的最后一次记者会上表示,比特币是一种“高度投机的资产”,且“不是一种稳定的储值手段”。这些轻蔑的评论得到了当时许多其他公共官员的共鸣。然而,自那以后,比特币的市值几乎翻了一番。数字货币还继续存在。

In the first crypto frenzy of 2017-18, comedian John Oliver described bitcoin as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers”. The technology aspects, particularly the blockchain network of digital ledgers that are used to record transactions, have not really lived up to the initial hype, but they are beginning to make progress. The issuance of $20bn in “initial coin offerings” seemed to contain elements of a speculative bubble, but the funds raised are now being used to launch projects broadly similar to other IT ventures in Silicon Valley.

在2017年至2018年的第一波加密货币狂热中,喜剧演员约翰•奥利弗(John Oliver)形容比特币是“你对钱所不懂的一切,加上你对电脑所不懂的一切”。比特币的技术方面,尤其用于记录交易的数字账本区块链网络,还未达到最初宣传的高度,但它们已开始取得进展。投资者向首次代币发行(ICO)投入的200亿美元似乎包含了投机泡沫的因素,但首次代币发行所募集的资金现在被用于推出一些与硅谷其他IT风投活动总体类似的项目。

Jay Clayton’s recent departure from the chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission may result in less hostile regulatory scrutiny of these activities, especially if Gary Gensler, who teaches about digital currencies, replaces him.

杰伊•克莱顿(Jay Clayton)最近卸任美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席,也许会导致监管部门对这些活动的审查变得不那么具有敌意,特别是如果教授数字货币课程的加里•根斯勒(Gary Gensler)接替他的话。

However, resistance to digital currencies as payments and transfer vehicles is likely to remain. Partly because of high transaction costs, bitcoin is not widely used for payments, and its future role seems limited.

然而,抵制将数字货币当作支付和转账工具的行动很可能会持续存在。比特币没有被广泛用于支付,其未来的角色似乎也有限,部分原因是交易费用高昂。

The outgoing Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has been working on new regulations to increase transparency in bitcoin transfers and reduce the scope for money laundering. Ms Yellen, in conjunction with the Fed, is likely to adopt an even more orthodox approach, treating the payments system as a quintessential public good.

即将卸任的美国财长史蒂文•姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)一直在制定新规,以加强比特币转账的透明度,并缩小用比特币洗钱的余地。耶伦与美联储很可能会采取更正统的方式,把支付系统打造成典型的公共产品。

The Fed is collaborating with foreign counterparts in investigating the development of central bank digital currencies. It is almost certain that CBDCs will eventually be issued in the major jurisdictions, following China’s lead. However, they will be denominated in national currencies, not crypto.

美联储正在与多家外国央行合作,调查央行数字货币(CBDC)的发展情况。几乎可以肯定,世界主要司法管辖区最终都会效仿中国,发行央行数字货币。然而,这些货币将主要以国家货币计价,而不是加密货币。

Private competitors denominated in genuinely new currencies, such as bitcoin, will be heavily regulated or actively discouraged. Hybrid stablecoins, such as Facebook’s libra, that are pegged to a single currency or other real assets may be more welcomed by central banks, if they were directly transferable into traditional currencies. Furthermore, they may not be powered by blockchain. Each of the major central banks may develop its own distributed ledger technology.

由私营主体创造、以比特币这类全新货币计价的竞争者将会受到严格监管,或被积极阻止。像Facebook创建的Libra这样的混合型稳定币也许更受央行欢迎——这类数字货币与单一货币或其他实物资产挂钩——假如它们可以直接转换成传统货币的话。此外,它们可能不会以区块链作为支撑。主要国家央行也许会各自研发自己的分布式账本技术。

That still leaves a role for crypto as an investment vehicle and store of value. Can bitcoin seriously compete with gold as a safe asset for the largest investors? History, regulation and market volatility make that seem improbable, but it is beginning to develop a more important role. Many big hedge funds and some conventional asset managers have followed Paul Tudor Jones in adopting bitcoin as a core hedge against inflation. While this may have seemed attractive when central banks were in effect creating money by buying up government debt last year, there are few signs of inflation on the imminent horizon.

加密货币仍然具有作为投资工具和价值存储的功能。对于最大的投资者来说,比特币真的能与黄金争夺安全资产的地位吗?从历史、监管和市场波动性来看,这很可能不会成为现实,但加密货币正开始发挥更重要的作用。许多大型对冲基金和一些传统资产管理公司纷纷效仿保罗•图德•琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones),采用比特币作为抵御通胀的核心对冲手段。尽管在各国央行去年通过购买政府债券来创造货币时,此举看似很有吸引力,但现在几乎没有迹象表明即将出现通胀。

Yet bitcoin prices have continued to rise, apparently driven by a narrative that holds that a privately created asset, which in theory has a finite supply, cannot be “printed” like the “legacy” fiat currencies.

然而,比特币的价格仍在持续上涨,这显然是受到了一种说法的推动,这种说法认为,理论上供应量有限的私人资产不能像“传统的”法定货币那样“印刷”。

According to Gold Hub, gold stocks held above ground amounted to 198,000 tonnes at the end of 2019, with about 57,000 tonnes of proven reserves below ground. This total stock would be valued at about $17tn in today’s prices. The latest market value of bitcoin is about $0.6tn — bitcoin bulls see this as a gauge of how much further its price could rise.

根据Gold Hub的数据,截至2019年底,地上黄金储备达到19.8万吨,地下已探明储量约为5.7万吨。以如今的金价计算,黄金总储量的价值约为17万亿美元。比特币的最新市值约为0.6万亿美元——看涨比特币的人士认为,这是衡量比特币价格还能上涨多少的标准。

There seems little reason on monetary policy or financial stability grounds why regulators should be worried about cryptocurrencies competing with gold as a store of value.

从货币政策或金融稳定的角度来看,监管机构似乎没有什么理由担心加密货币会与黄金争夺价值贮藏手段的地位。

The crypto world is currently in a frenzy of short-term speculation. However, if investors continue to buy into the dubious narrative that these private currencies are “safer” than those controlled by the central banks, they could rise much further in market value in coming years.

加密货币的世界目前正处于短期投机的狂热之中。然而,如果投资者继续相信这些私人货币比央行控制的货币“更安全”的可疑说法,未来几年这些加密货币的市值可能会进一步大幅上涨。

Stranger things have certainly happened in financial markets.

金融市场上肯定发生过更奇怪的事情。

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刘纪鹏:中国政法大学商学院院长、MBA教育中心主任、二级教授、博士生导师、高级研究员、高级经济师、注册会计师。

孟令星:中国政法大学商学院讲师、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清华大学商法学博士、中国人民大学经济法学博士后、美国哈佛大学进修学者。

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(本文转载自中国政法大学 ,如有侵权请电话联系13331155713)

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