秉承“融汇中西管理智慧、培养创业创新精神、践行服务社会责任、作育商界管理精英”的使命，中山大学管理学院扎根于中国情境，致力于管理理论创新及管理实践的研究。近年来，中山大学管理学院科研成果丰硕，高水平论著持续涌现。

教师姓名：张才文 副教授

论文题目：Weibull parameter estimation and reliability analysis with zero-failure data from high-quality products

刊物名称：Reliability Engineering and System Safety

期刊卷期数：2020年online

所有作者：Cai Wen Zhang

学校类别：一A重要核心期刊论文

论文摘要

This paper deals with an old and fundamental problem in reliability—estimation of Weibull parameters and reliability with zero-failure data. Because the maximum likelihood estimation is no longer applicable, the conventional method uses the 50% confidence limit as a point estimator for the Weibull scale parameter. However, since this method was proposed several decades ago, little progress has been made on the solution to this fundamental problem. New estimation techniques are developed in this study. In contrast to those Bayesian methods found in the literature which usually leverage historical data and/or technical knowledge, the new methods do not require prior information. In particular, an unbiased estimator for the Weibull scale parameter is discovered for the first time, which is demonstrated to have much better statistical performance than the conventional estimator as well as other new estimators proposed in this study. The unbiased estimator also provides significant new insights into the problem under study. An efficient confidence interval is also derived for the Weibull scale parameter, which is demonstrated through simulation to have satisfactory coverage probabilities.

教师简介

ZHANG, Cai Wen is an associate professor of management science at theSchoolof Business , Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. He received his PhD from the National University of Singapore, specializing in quality engineering and management. Prior to joining Sun Yat-sen Business School, Dr. Zhang worked for five years as a statistical consultant for Hitachi Global Storage Technologies (Singapore). He has published papers in international peer-reviewed journals including