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英文标题：Destination-to-origin differences andsettlement intentions of Chinese internal migrants: A birth cohort analysis

作者：王洁晶（中国人民大学公共管理学院副教授），张延吉（福州大学人文社会科学学院讲师）

王洁晶｜中国人民大学公共管理学院副教授

中文摘要

我国人口流动进入总量稳定下的空间调整新阶段，存量流动人口的定居意愿成为未来影响全国城镇体系结构演变的重要因素。

本文基于出生队列的视角检验了流入地和流出地的差异对流动人口定居意愿的影响。

研究发现城市规模、经济和公共服务的差异对流动人口的定居意愿具有显著而稳健的影响，而且在不同出生队列的流动人口之间存在显著差异。

本文的发现以“新生代”和“旧生代”划分流动人口的二分法可能不足以揭示流动人口的内部差异。为促进流动流动人口市民化，精细化的政策需要同时兼顾地区间差异和不同出生队列的需求。

英文摘要

Research on Chinese internal migrants has gradually shifted from a focus on the rapid expansion of this population to its relationship with the restructuring of spatial distribution in cities. The settlement intentions of migrants are key to how China's urbanisation and urban system will evolve. Yet, although there is a considerable body of research on this subject, the determinants of migrants' settlement intentions remain debatable. In this paper, in light of the dramatic economic and social transition undergone by China in the past 70 years, we demonstrate the importance of considering the cohort perspective in relation to Chinese migrants' settlement intentions. Specifically, we examine the effects of differences between migrants' origins and their destinations on settlement intentions in relation to year of birth. Our results show that destination-to-origin differences in terms of population size, administrative level, economic condition and public services are positively associated with migrants' settlement intentions, whereas geographic distance and cultural distance between origin and destination are negatively related to the intention to settle in destination cities. Further, these effects vary significantly across birth cohorts. Our findings demonstrate the importance of going beyond the standard dichotomy between old generation and new generation that is often used in the analysis of migration trends. To achieve more inclusive urbanisation in the future, targeted policies that take into account inter-city and inter-cohort variations are critical to addressing obstacles to the settlement of migrants in destination cities.

关键词

China, cohort, destination-to-origin difference, internal migrants, settlement intention

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