尹海涛

上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副院长

EMBA课程教授

可再生能源发展趋势

CGTN:

Let’s welcome professor YIN Hai Tao from Anti College of Economics and Management at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Professor YIN, great to have you on the show. We start by asking you what are the new trends that we are seeing in renewable energy development herein China.

请问尹海涛教授，中国可再生能源发展的新趋势是什么？

Prof. YIN:

Thank you very much. I think there are two things that are going to happen in the future. First, we are going to see a very strong growth of renewable investment in China in the next five to ten years. We have already set up an ambitious goal for renewable development. According to the government documents, by 2030, more than 25% of the energy need in China should be fulfilled by non-fossil energy, and more particularly, the generation capacity of solar farms or wind farms is going to reach 1.2 billion KW. Therefore, in the next five to ten years, we are going to see a stronger growth of renewable investment, which is the first trend we are going to observe.

Second, if you ask what the most important challenge is for renewable development ten years ago, the answer would be: it is very expensive. But nowadays renewable energy is cheap. In the future, we must make sure that the electricity generated by solar farms and wind farms can be used by the industrial users or residential users. In other words, what’s more important in the future is to make sure we can integrate the renewable energy into the national grid. Thank you.

未来新能源发电的爆发性增长是具有确定性的。我认为将会出现两种趋势。第一，中国的新能源投资在未来的5到10年会有非常巨大的增长。目前我们已制定了非常明确的可再生能源发展目标。根据政府文件，截止2030年，中国25%以上的能源需求将由非化石能源来满足，太阳能或风力发电厂的发电能力将达到12亿千瓦。因此，在未来的5到10年，我们会看到新能源方面的投资将更为强劲，这是第一个趋势。

其次，新能源的发展，未来的主要挑战是新能源电力的消纳。在过去可再生能源发电非常昂贵，但是现在却很便宜。在未来，我们必须确保光伏电站和风电站发出的电力能够被工业用户或老百姓使用。换句话说，未来的主要挑战是新能源电力的消纳。

可再生能源是中国解决能源短缺问题的关键

CGTN:

That’s interesting. What role do you think renewable energy development to play in ensuring energy security and how effective is it in solving energy shortages?

您认为可再生能源发展对保障能源安全有何作用?对解决能源短缺问题有何效果?

Prof. YIN:

I think the role that renewable energy would play is very critical. Why is that the case? China is not very rich in energy reserves, and we don’t have much oil or natural gas. If we look at the data, about 70% of the petroleum oil consumed in China is imported from other countries. As for the natural gas, the number is between 40% to 50%. So, in the future if we want to get rid of our reliance on international importation of petroleum oil and natural gas, we don’t have many choices on the table. We have coal in China. But when we use more coal, we are going to have more concerns on global warming, on carbon emission. Basically, the only technologically feasible and commercially viable solution, for the time being, is renewable energy. Therefore, the rapid development of renewable energy is very critical to solve the energy shortage issue in China in the future.

发展新能源对解决中国近期的能源短缺问题至关重要。我这么说的原因在于，数据表明，中国的石油和天然气储存量并不大。以石油为例，中国消费的石油约有70%是从其他国家进口的，天然气则是在40% - 50%，这也是中国能源安全的一个关键挑战。因此，在未来，若想摆脱对国际石油和天然气进口的依赖，我们没有太多的选择。如果大量使用煤炭，会有碳排放、或者全球变暖的担忧。因此，目前唯一在技术上可行、在商业上可行的解决方案是可再生能源。因此，发展新能源对解决中国近期的能源短缺问题至关重要。

实现可持续发展需要多重创新

CGTN:

Professor YIN, when we talk about this, may be the hardest thing that everyone can think of is how to balance among economic growth, environment conservation, and energy security, especially at a time when the world is faced with energy shortages. So, what are the key points that policy makers must take into consideration to achieve these goals?

说到这里，我们目前面临的挑战可能是如何在经济增长、环境保护和能源安全之间取得平衡，特别是在当今世界面临能源短缺的情况下。那么，要实现这些目标，政策制定者必须考虑的关键点是什么?

Prof. YIN:

I totally agree with you. It’s very important to achieve environmental protection and economic growth at the same time. It’s a critical challenge for human society. That is why we emphasized sustainable development so heavily during the last ten years and will continue to do so many years into the future. Achieving sustainable development is very difficult but it’s a future that everybody desires. We must make efforts. If you ask me for the answer to this challenge, the keyword is “Innovation”, not only technology innovation but also innovations of business models. I trust that if we unite together to make more innovations on technology and business models, we will have a more sustainable future.

同时实现社会发展，环境保护与经济增长确实至关重要，这也是对人类社会的重大挑战，也是我们在过去十年和未来许多年强调可持续发展的原因。当下全面实现可持续发展非常困难，但可持续发展是每个人都渴望的。面对此挑战，最关键的就是创新。不仅仅是技术创新，也要致力于商业模式和管理层面的创新。我相信，如果我们团结起来在技术上和商业模式上进行更多的创新，未来我们一定会实现可持续发展。

面对新能源电力的消纳挑战，只能依靠创新

CGTN:

Professor YIN, in China’s 14th Five Year Plan, the country has vowed make quick progress and achieve a leap in quality development in the renewable energy industry, what do you think could be the key achievements in this regard?

在中国的“十四五”规划中，国家承诺在可再生能源行业实现质的飞跃，您认为这方面的关键成就可能是什么?

Prof. YIN:

For this question, I want to get back to a point I mentioned earlier, which is, the critical challenge in the next few years is to integrate the renewable generation into the national grid. And for that purpose, we must do innovation.

The first innovation is technological innovation. To make sure a large-scale integration of renewable energy, we must rely on technology innovation, such as energy storage, smart grid technology, and hydrogen technology. What’s more, we need do some innovation on market trading system, and how we trade electricity on the grid system.

The second one is innovation on business models. Recently, we focused on distributed renewable generation instead of large-scale concentrated renewable generation. We see more examples of combining renewable generation with livestock farming, fishery industry and many others.

If we can achieve these two innovations, I am sure that we will have a high quality of renewable development in the future.

关于这个问题，我想回到我之前提到的一点，未来的主要挑战是新能源电力的消纳。提升新能源消纳能力只能依靠创新。不只是技术上面的创新（例如储能和智能电网），还包括商业模式和管理层面的创新（例如微电网系统优化、渔光互补等分布式利用）。如果我们能做到这两方面的创新，我相信我们会实现可再生能源的高质量发展。

来源：CGTN

中英文编辑：胥琦

责任编辑：王琪

审核：徐静

编辑：凌墨